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Chocolate Crisis?

What does a cocoa shortage mean for the future of chocolate?

February 17, 2025
By Lauren Davis and Ellen Song

As You Read, Think About: What has caused the price of chocolate to go up?

From crunchy candy bars to creamy peanut butter cups, the variety of chocolate candies may seem endless. But the chocolate options at your local store could be changing. That’s because cocoa, the main ingredient in chocolate, is in short supply. With less cocoa available, its cost is skyrocketing. 

What does this mean for cocoa farmers as well as chocolate lovers around the world? 

Crunchy candy bars. Creamy peanut butter cups. The variety of chocolate candies may seem endless. But the chocolate options at your local store could be changing. That’s because cocoa is in low supply. Cocoa is the main ingredient in chocolate. With less cocoa available, its cost is soaring.  

What does this mean for cocoa farmers as well as chocolate lovers around the world?

JPaul Ninson/Bloomberg via Getty Images

A cocoa farmer in Ghana checks his crops.

A Challenging Crop

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Each of the pods has cocoa beans inside.

A candy bar’s long journey to store shelves starts with the fruit on a cacao (kuh-KOW) tree. Cocoa beans are found inside the tree’s football-shaped fruit, called pods. Cacao trees grow in tropical rainforests near the equator. But nearly two-thirds of the world’s cocoa supply comes from just two countries in West Africa: Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire (koht dee-VWAHR). 

Extreme weather due to climate change has been hurting cocoa crops in those two countries. In late 2023, they received much more rainfall than usual. Heavy rains can flood farms and cause cacao pods to rot on the branch. By early 2024, cocoa farmers had the opposite problem: droughts. These periods with little or no rainfall can stress cacao trees and ruin harvests. 

Severe weather also makes the trees more susceptible to diseases. Infected trees must be cut down. This can have dire consequences for farmers, most of whom live in poverty. They have few options for other jobs. 

“If you’re a cocoa farmer and you have to take down your trees, you’ve lost your primary way of earning money,” says Kristy Leissle. She’s an expert on the chocolate industry.

A candy bar’s journey to your local store starts with the fruit on a cacao (kuh-KOW) tree. Cocoa beans are found in the tree’s fruit, called pods. Cacao trees grow in tropical rainforests near the equator. But nearly two-thirds of cocoa comes from just two countries in West Africa. They are Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire (koht dee-VWAHR). 

Extreme weather due to climate change has been hurting cocoa crops in these countries. In late 2023, they received much more rain than usual. Heavy rains can flood farms. They can also cause cacao pods to rot. By early 2024, cocoa farmers had the opposite problem: droughts. These are periods with little or no rain. Droughts can stress cacao trees. They ruin harvests. 

Severe weather also makes the trees susceptible to diseases. Infected trees are cut down. This can have dire results for farmers. Most cocoa farmers live in poverty. They have few options for other jobs. 

“If you’re a cocoa farmer and you have to take down your trees, you’ve lost your primary way of earning money,” says Kristy Leissle. She’s an expert on the chocolate industry.

Jim McMahon/Mapman®

Cocoa Producers: The African nations of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana produce most of the world’s cocoa.

Business Basics

Weather issues and diseases have led to a big drop in cocoa production. By the end of 2024, the global cocoa supply had decreased by about 1.5 billion pounds from the year before. 

This cocoa shortage has affected the price of our favorite candy bars. To understand why, it helps to know about supply and demand (see below). 

The demand for chocolate is always high. Americans spent more than $21 billion on chocolate treats from August 2023 to August 2024. That’s according to the National Confectioners Association. To keep up with that demand, chocolate manufacturers need to buy a lot of cocoa. 

But with the lower supply of this key ingredient, the price of cocoa has more than doubled since the start of 2024. As a result, candy companies are spending more to make chocolate treats. Some of that extra cost is being passed on to consumers. Experts predict that chocolate prices in U.S. stores could increase by 10 percent or more this year. 

Weather issues and diseases have decreased cocoa production. By the end of 2024, the world’s cocoa supply had decreased by about 1.5 billion pounds from the year before. 

This cocoa shortage has affected the price of our favorite candy bars. To understand why, it helps to know about supply and demand (see below). 

The demand for chocolate is always high. Americans spent more than $21 billion on chocolate from August 2023 to August 2024. That’s according to the National Confectioners Association. To keep up with that demand, chocolate companies need to buy a lot of cocoa. 

Since the cocoa supply is low, the price of this ingredient has more than doubled. That’s since the start of 2024. As a result, candy companies are spending more to make chocolate treats. Some of that extra cost is being passed on to consumers. Experts say that chocolate prices in U.S. stores could increase by 10 percent or more this year. 

Got Chocolate?

But chocolate makers know they could lose customers if prices get too high. So they’ve come up with other ways to deal with the cocoa shortage. Some have made their package sizes smaller. For example, party-size bags of M&M’s and Hershey’s miniatures are about 10 percent smaller than they were five years ago. And some companies are developing treats that contain less cocoa. A new vanilla-flavored Kit Kat, for instance, has almost no chocolate. 

Leissle says chocolate lovers should pay attention to what’s available to buy and decide if they’re satisfied. 

“Save a wrapper from your favorite candy bar and compare it to the same product in the future,” she says. “I think we’ll keep seeing less cocoa in chocolate products overall.”

But chocolate makers could lose customers if prices get too high. So they’ve come up with other ways to deal with the cocoa shortage. Some have made their package sizes smaller. Party-size bags of M&M’s and Hershey’s miniatures are about 10 percent smaller than they were five years ago. And some companies are developing treats that contain less cocoa. For instance, a new vanilla-flavored Kit Kat has almost no chocolate. 

Leissle says chocolate lovers should pay attention to what’s available to buy. Then they can decide if they’re satisfied. 

“Save a wrapper from your favorite candy bar and compare it to the same product in the future,” she says. “I think we’ll keep seeing less cocoa in chocolate products overall.”

Supply and Demand

  • SUPPLY is the amount of a product that is available to consumers. 
  • DEMAND is how much consumers want of a product.
  • Both can have a big effect on the price of a product.
  • SUPPLY is the amount of a product that is available to consumers. 
  • DEMAND is how much consumers want of a product.
  • Both can have a big effect on the price of a product.

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When supply is LOW but demand is HIGH, people are willing to pay more for a product. As a result, a business may RAISE THE PRICE.

When supply is LOW but demand is HIGH, people are willing to pay more for a product. As a result, a business may RAISE THE PRICE.

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When supply is HIGH but demand is LOW, more of the product is available than consumers want. So the PRICE MAY DROP.

When supply is HIGH but demand is LOW, more of the product is available than consumers want. So the PRICE MAY DROP.

1. Based on the article, how does extreme weather hurt cocoa crops?

2. How do the authors support the idea that the cocoa shortage is affecting candy prices?

3. Aside from raising prices, what are some other ways candy makers are dealing with the cocoa shortage?

1. Based on the article, how does extreme weather hurt cocoa crops?

2. How do the authors support the idea that the cocoa shortage is affecting candy prices?

3. Aside from raising prices, what are some other ways candy makers are dealing with the cocoa shortage?

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